Examining Benchmarks of Sexual Recidivism Rates for Short, Moderate, and Long-Term Follow-Up Periods: A Meta-Analysis of Canadian and American Studies

Trauma Violence Abuse. 2025 Jun 3:15248380251338791. doi: 10.1177/15248380251338791. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

Measuring sexual recidivism involves both a behavioral and a temporal component. The behavioral component is sexually reoffending, generally measured using official sources. The temporal component is the follow-up period during which sexual recidivism is examined. Research has shown that if the length of the follow-up period is extended, rates of sexual recidivism increase. What is less clear is the functional form of this relationship. The present study examines this relationship through a meta-analysis of 468 sexual recidivism studies conducted in Canada and the United States and published since 1940. The weighted pooled mean recidivism rates ranged from 0.06 (95% CI [0.05, 0.09]; mean follow-up of less than 3 years) to 0.17 ([0.12, 0.23]; mean follow-up of 12 years or more). These benchmarks should be used with caution given the wide variability of recidivism rates observed in studies with similar mean follow-up periods. Such caution is especially needed in when communicating the risk of recidivism over longer-term follow-up periods given the limited number of such studies.

PMID:40462275 | DOI:10.1177/15248380251338791