Evolving Mechanisms of Inequality: Historical Redlining, Contemporary Mortgage Discrimination, and Firearm Violence
AI Summary
Historical redlining strongly predicts higher shooting rates in Chicago, with a direct effect accounting for 77.1% to 97.3% of the total effect.
Contemporary housing discrimination measures, including mortgage originations, high cost loans, denials, evictions, and foreclosures, are independently associated with shootings.
Both the legacy of racist redlining and ongoing discriminatory housing practices must be addressed to reduce firearm violence and promote equitable housing stability.
Ann Surg. 2026 May 12. doi: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000007085. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To examine how historical redlining and contemporary housing discrimination impact firearm violence in Chicago.
BACKGROUND: Firearm violence disproportionately harms minoritized communities, grounded in structural racism. Although redlining has long been linked to higher rates of shooting, the contribution of current housing discrimination to these disparities remains uncertain.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective observational study of Chicago from 2010 to 2019 using firearm homicide data involving Black victims. Shooting rates were tabulated for all census blocks in Chicago. Historical redlining designations were paired with contemporary housing discrimination metrics including mortgage originations, high-cost loans, loan denials, evictions, and foreclosures. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to understand independent associations. Four-way decomposition elucidated the mediative and interactive effects of current housing discrimination on redlining designation.
RESULTS: Redlined areas had substantially higher shooting rates than non-redlined areas (IRR 7.90, 95% CI 5.18-12.06). Each contemporary discrimination measure was independently associated with shootings. Effect decomposition indicated the direct effect of redlining accounted for 77.1%-97.3% of the total effect. The interactive effect of housing discrimination variables represented 7.9%-22.1% of the total effect but had minimal mediative effect, explaining 0.7%-2.8%.
CONCLUSIONS: Historical redlining and contemporary housing discrimination function as independent yet complementary drivers of firearm violence disparities in Chicago. While the legacy of redlining exerts a dominant direct effect, ongoing housing practices further exacerbate violence in vulnerable communities. Effective strategies should address both the enduring impacts of racist historical policies and current discriminatory practices to reduce firearm violence and promote equitable housing stability.
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