The Asian Burden of Urticaria in Adolescents and Young Adults: Estimates From 1990-2021 and Projections to 2036

Br J Hosp Med (Lond). 2026 May 20;87(5):54058. doi: 10.31083/BJHM54058.

ABSTRACT

AIMS/BACKGROUND: Urticaria is a common inflammatory skin disease that significantly impairs the quality of life and mental health of adolescents and young adults. Despite its increasing impact, comprehensive long-term epidemiological data focusing specifically on the young population across diverse Asian regions remain limited. This study aimed to assess the burden of urticaria among adolescents and young adults in Asia from 1990 to 2021, and to project its changes through 2036.

METHODS: A repeated cross-sectional analysis using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data was conducted to estimate the burden of urticaria prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among Asian adolescents and young adults (ages 10-24) from 1990 to 2021. Data analysis was performed from November 2024 to April 2025.

RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the prevalence, incidence, and DALYs for urticaria increased among Asian adolescents and young adults, with rates consistently higher in females. In 2021, there were 16,347,995 new cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 12,625,370 to 21,681,388). The prevalence rose from 863.13 (95% UI: 761.99 to 983.08) to 877.84 (95% UI: 775.68 to 1000.20) per 100,000 population (average annual percent change [AAPC] = 0.055%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.053% to 0.056%). The incidence increased from 1525.51 (95% UI: 1341.63 to 1728.55) to 1552.60 (95% UI: 1369.05 to 1758.22) per 100,000 population (AAPC = 0.057%, 95% CI: 0.055% to 0.057%). The DALY rate grew from 51.74 (95% UI: 34.15 to 74.31) to 52.78 (95% UI: 34.65 to 76.09) per 100,000 population (AAPC = 0.064%, 95% CI: 0.063% to 0.065%). Overall, Central Asia has the highest age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and DALYs. Health inequality assessments indicated that the disease burden has intensified in low socio-demographic index (SDI) regions due to unequal medical resources. The incidence is projected to continue rising over the next 15 years, reaching 1568.89 (95% prediction interval [PI]: 1552.24 to 1592.05) per 100,000 population by 2036.

CONCLUSION: Over the past three decades, urticaria has shown significant increases in prevalence, incidence, and DALYs across the region, with females exhibiting higher morbidity rates than males. This trend is expected to persist through 2036. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted public health interventions and more equitable distribution of medical resources to mitigate the escalating disease burden, particularly in high-burden, low-SDI regions.

PMID:42216605 | DOI:10.31083/BJHM54058