Trending to baseline: A long-term look at the COVID-19 pandemic effects on non-natural deaths in Ontario

AI Summary

Homicide rates rose during the pandemic, stayed elevated in 2022, then returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023.
Suicide rates fell during 2020-2021 compared with 2018-2019, rose substantially in 2022, and reverted to baseline by 2023.
Accidental drug-related deaths increased during the pandemic and remain elevated in 2022-2023, while motor vehicle deaths trended back to baseline.

AI Summary

METHODS: Homicides, suicides, and accidental deaths (n = 98,209) were extracted from the Office of the Chief Coroner-Ontario Forensic Pathology Service database and crude rates (per 100,000 people) were compared from 2009-2019 (pre-pandemic; A) versus 2020-2021 (pandemic; B) versus 2022 only (post-pandemic year 1; C), 2023 only (post-pandemic year 2; D), and 2022-2023 together (post-pandemic; E). Motor vehicle collision-related deaths declined during the pandemic (pAB<0.001), though rates in 2022 (pAC = 0.26) and 2023 (pAD = 0.87) appear to re-align with pre-pandemic rates. CONCLUSION: Homicide rates increased while suicide and motor vehicle collision-related deaths decreased during the pandemic but appear to be 'trending to baseline', resembling pre-pandemic rates.

Basic summary

Forensic Sci Int. 2026 May 30;387:113031. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.113031. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Our previous study investigated the acute impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related public health measures on non-natural deaths in Ontario. This retrospective study evaluates long-term trends, including 2022-2023 as the post-pandemic phase.

RESULTS: Homicide rates increased during the pandemic (pAB<0.001) and remained elevated in 2022 (pAC<0.001) then decreased to pre-pandemic rates in 2023 (pAD = 0.11). Suicide rates declined, particularly when comparing pandemic years (2020-2021) to the acute pre-pandemic period (R) (2018-2019, pRB<0.001). Rates rose substantially in 2022 (pBC = 0.0042) and decreased to pre-pandemic rates in 2023 (pAD = 0.61). Accidental drug-related deaths increased during the pandemic (pAB<0.001), dropped slightly in 2022 (pBC = 0.021), and then increased in 2023 back to pandemic rates (pBD=0.88). Motor vehicle collision-related deaths declined during the pandemic (pAB<0.001), though rates in 2022 (pAC = 0.26) and 2023 (pAD = 0.87) appear to re-align with pre-pandemic rates.

CONCLUSION: Homicide rates increased while suicide and motor vehicle collision-related deaths decreased during the pandemic but appear to be ‘trending to baseline’, resembling pre-pandemic rates. However, accidental drug-related deaths remain elevated in the post-pandemic years. Ongoing analysis of the pandemic effects on non-natural deaths is required to inform future public health interventions.

PMID:42241941 | DOI:10.1016/j.forsciint.2026.113031

Document this CPD