Reduced incidence of arrest following an extreme risk protection order among respondents in California – Psychiatry AI: Real-Time AI Scoping Review

AI Summary

Retrospective cohort of 679 California ERPO respondents (2016-2019), predominantly male (91.9%), aged 14–89; 70.6% involved interpersonal violence threats.
Arrest rates were significantly lower while the ERPO was in effect versus the six months prior; IRRs ranged 0.20 (firearm violence) to 0.45 (any arrest).
Reduced arrest associations persisted six months after ERPO expiry; 49.8% had legally purchased firearms before, 3.4% purchased within six months after.

AI Summary

We used adjusted Poisson models to estimate incident rate ratios (IRRs) for arrest (any arrest and arrest for violence, firearm offenses, and firearm violence) comparing rates 6 months before the ERPO was issued to rates while the ERPO was in effect and 6 months after it expired.

Respondents were significantly less likely to be arrested while the ERPO was in effect than during the 6 months prior to it being issued (IRRs ranged from 0.20 [firearm violence] to 0.45 [any arrest]).

Low incidence rate ratios for arrest after ERPOs were issued suggest ERPOs may prevent arrest for criminal behaviors, including violence perpetration, among respondents.

Basic summary

PNAS Nexus. 2026 May 23;5(6):pgag184. doi: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag184. eCollection 2026 Jun.

ABSTRACT

Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs) are used to disarm individuals making threats of interpersonal harm, but little is known about respondents’ pre- and postorder criminal behavior. We sought to quantify ERPO respondents’ rate of arrest vis-à-vis timing of the order. This was a retrospective cohort study of Californian respondents with ERPOs issued 2016-2019 and for whom we received ERPO court case files (n = 679). Arrest and legal firearm purchasing information was obtained from the California Department of Justice, while contextual information about the respondents and their cases was abstracted from ERPO case files. We used adjusted Poisson models to estimate incident rate ratios (IRRs) for arrest (any arrest and arrest for violence, firearm offenses, and firearm violence) comparing rates 6 months before the ERPO was issued to rates while the ERPO was in effect and 6 months after it expired. Respondents were 14-89 years old, 91.9% were men, and 59.9% were non-Hispanic white. Most cases (70.6%) included interpersonal violence threats. Half of respondents (49.8%) legally purchased a firearm prior to the ERPO and 3.4% purchased firearms in the 6 months following the ERPO’s expiration. Respondents were significantly less likely to be arrested while the ERPO was in effect than during the 6 months prior to it being issued (IRRs ranged from 0.20 [firearm violence] to 0.45 [any arrest]). These associations persisted after the ERPO expired. Low incidence rate ratios for arrest after ERPOs were issued suggest ERPOs may prevent arrest for criminal behaviors, including violence perpetration, among respondents.

PMID:42255019 | PMC:PMC13238727 | DOI:10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag184

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