Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990-2023, with the estimated burden attributable to intimate partner violence and forecasted impacts of funding cuts through 2030: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Lancet HIV. 2026 Aug 18:S2352-3018(26)00147-5. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(26)00147-5. Online ahead of print.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Despite a general improvement in the HIV burden over the past two decades, gendered social determinants including intimate partner violence (IPV) continue to affect women’s vulnerability to HIV, which could be further exacerbated as resources dwindle over the coming years. Our study aimed to quantify recent trends in the HIV burden, the magnitude of the HIV burden associated with IPV, and the potential impact of declining financial support globally.

METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework, we estimated annual HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, disaggregated by age and sex. Input data included national HIV programme reports, population-based serosurveys, clinical and vital registration data, and systematically reviewed literature. Countries and territories were grouped according to the availability and completeness of HIV prevalence and mortality data, with tailored modelling approaches applied for each group. To characterise the potential contributions of IPV to the HIV burden, time series estimates of IPV prevalence by location and effect size estimates were combined to generate population attributable fractions of the HIV burden. To forecast future trends and assess the potential impact of reductions in development assistance for health, we used a non-parametric stochastic frontier approach to estimate how funding levels could affect antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Adjustments in future ART coverage were integrated into our forecasts, altering projected rates of HIV-related incidence and mortality. We compared scenarios with and without funding cuts, quantifying the potential epidemiological effects of reduced ART availability by sex.

FINDINGS: Between 2003 and 2023, the annual number of new HIV infections declined globally, from 2·85 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·76-2·96) to 2·06 million (1·88-2·29). Meanwhile, HIV-related deaths decreased from a peak of 1·71 million (1·61-1·83) in 2004 to 0·83 million (0·73-0·96) in 2023. The number of people living with HIV rose from 26·3 million (25·5-27·3) in 2003 to 42·4 million (40·3-44·4) in 2023, reflecting improved survival associated with ART expansion. Although females continued to have higher prevalence of HIV than males in 2023 (23·4 million [22·2-24·6] vs 19·1 million [17·6-20·5]), the gap in incidence between females and males has substantially declined. Regionally, sub-Saharan Africa had the greatest declines in both incidence (64·3%; 58·0-68·6) and mortality (74·6%; 70·4-78·5) between 2003 and 2023, while central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia recorded the highest increases in incidence rates (232·1%; 146·5-299·1) and mortality rates (37·8%; 31·2-45·5) during this period. IPV was associated with an estimated 10·7% (1·6-20·4) of HIV-related deaths among females aged 15 years and older globally in 2023, corresponding to 40 700 (6400-80 600) deaths, with the highest population attributable fractions observed in Oceania (17·4%; 2·8-33·1), central sub-Saharan Africa (14·2%; 2·1-29·4), and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (13·2%; 2·0-25·3). Forecasts indicate that funding reductions could decrease ART coverage by 8·1% globally between 2025 and 2030, resulting in approximately 1·6 million new HIV infections among females and 1·3 million new HIV infections among males, alongside 790 600 and 670 600 HIV-related deaths, respectively. These impacts are primarily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION: Despite two decades of substantial progress, the global HIV response remains highly sensitive to gendered social determinants and funding stability. The potential contribution of IPV to HIV-related mortality among women underscores the need for integrated interventions that address violence prevention and post-violence care alongside HIV treatment. The projected effects of funding cuts-millions of additional infections and deaths-highlight the fragility of the gains achieved and the urgent need to protect HIV financing. Achieving and sustaining the UNAIDS 2030 targets will require renewed investment, gender-responsive programming, and resilient health systems capable of providing equitable access to care.

FUNDING: Gates Foundation and the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

PMID:42612664 | DOI:10.1016/S2352-3018(26)00147-5